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from Stephen Downes

Although he is commenting on the Doug Johnson rubric – which isn’t bad, Stephen’s own ‘two advances’ rule seems a better determination for predicting large scale adoptions of technology.

the ‘two advances’ rule. Which is: any old
technology can be an advance in one type of thing. But a
new technology will take off only if it represents a major
advance in two separate dimensions. The Wii, for example,
not only uses wireless controllers (one advance) it also
uses motion detection (two advances).

http://www.downes.ca/cgi-bin/page.cgi?post=40111

Stephen comments on the actual rubric

I don’t use this rubric (my definition of ‘usefulness’, for example, if very different) these are the sorts of things I do take into account.

Predicting Large Scale Adoption of Technology
http://doug-johnson.squarespace.com/blue-skunk-blog/2007/5/7/predicting-large-scale-adoption-of-technology.html

PDF file
http://doug-johnson.squarespace.com/storage/LSA.pdf

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