relocated from ?? 2012.12.06


I said…

from what I read…

  • commodities prices are very volatile, the price of crude could drop 50% in a day as it did in 1991 ($30+ to %18 over night) ..PBS 30may08
  • Commerce Department reported the nation’s real gross domestic product increased at a 0.9% annual rate – no inflation, sluggish growth in the economy ..MarketWatch 30may08
general knowledge real story
inflation under control gas, food much more expensive and rising
consumers retail sales, consumer sentiment all down
housing could be the bottom – prices are down, housing starts are up too many empty units, builders in trouble
credit still cheap, available to qualified buyers
stock market poised for recovery, may be a buying opportunity, recovery is imminent because the markets are rising
recession maybe Martin Feldstein of NBER defines “recession” says we are in one

Retirement Investment Management / Personal Wealth Management – what is this all about? Me, actually…

Everything I need to know for do-it-yourself personal wealth management. Cheap and cheerful without taking any more time than back-to-back episodes of the Iron Chef. Save tons of money – 1-2% financial management fees, 1-1.5% mutual fund fees. Minimal expenses – couple of $150 per year newsletters, free email newsletters, free online news. Earn big bucks – consider the fees I am saving as earnings from a part-time job, better hourly rate than selling boat bits at the marine store. Confidence and personal satisfaction – priceless.

  • fundamentals – saving assets investments stocks bonds mutual funds interest rates currency exchange rates money supply global economy historical data treasuries
  • personal – goals values lifestyle personality color
  • financial planning – current assets goals expected returns
  • retirement – planning goals spending income taxes calculator IRAs Traditional Roth compare contributions catch-up withdrawal conversion recharacterization reconversion
  • investing – online brokers accounts services margins options short-selling hedge funds derivatives market timing stock picking drawdowns volatility
  • strategies – Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) asset allocation core-and-explore lifecycle rolldown Hussman Beating the Dow Ben Stein Coffeehouse diversification re balancing
  • bonds – treasuries corporate utilities tax-free municipal junk ladder taxable
  • taxes – federal state return preparation optimization surprises
  • miscellaneous – TIPS LEAPs spreads covered calls butterflies
  • big picture – recession yield curve depression stagflation hyperinflation Japanese recovery
  • advisers – screening trust relationship cost
  • crossroads – housing bubble
  • blogs & commentary – contrarian important interesting
  • news & information – sources cost audio publications newsletters
  • tutorials
  • personal wealth management – tasks frequency time interest rewards
  • glossaries – Motley Fool Vanguard WFN
  • continuing education sophisticated investors global perspective
  • rock stars – analysts successful investors – James Grant Steve Roach Bill Fleckenstein Michael O’Higgins Warren Buffett Paul Kasriel Sir John Templeton Jeremy Grantham Ben Stein Marc Faber Richard Russell

I should know this…

One thing leads to another as I wonder around the web looking to learn more about personal wealth management. Here is a running list of items that need future investigation.

  • “convert remaining IRA to Roth and put one-half of Roth into TR2015″ – what are the rules, benefits, downside of an IRA to Roth conversion? what is TR2015? why would you switch from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA? what are the tax implications? Vanguard Diehard forum .. 3/25
  • need to understand more about bonds – when to buy ..3/25
  • The Coffeehouse portfolio allocates 60 percent to stocks and 40 percent to bonds. The stock allocation is divided equally into six asset classes – large-cap, value, small-cap, small-cap value, international and REITs. The bond allocation consists of an intermediate-term bond-index fund. Using the appropriate Vanguard index funds to meet those goals, the portfolio generated a return of 14.2 percent in 2004. – select Vanguard funds to match, create tracking portfolio
  • short-term volatility – tolerance, management
  • ongoing management of your assets: a schedule for rebalancing your portfolio to its target allocation, the funds used to implement your allocation, criteria for adding or eliminating investments, and the role of taxes and costs in your decisions. – need to get better information for plan guidelines statement Vanguard
  • Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) – learn more
  • Investment Committees: Vanguard’s View of Best Practices from Vanguard Investment Counseling & Research.
  • lifecycle, rolldown – do other institutions offer rebalancing retirement funds similar to Fidelity Freedom funds? is approximate model asset mix appropriate? low-cost assets to provide similar diversification? shortcomings? issues with model? .. 3/27
  • saving like madmen is still open. Only it is not an option: it’s mandatory. In index funds, annuities, mutual funds, real estate, bonds but best, in all of these things at once. by Ben Stein – would this work? .. 3/27
  • The Intelligent Investor – Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett’s mentor ..6/21

Articles in the commentary are categorized into the following general framework. Because interesting topics come up at random, it is important to be able to retrieve comments and view them systematically. The categories and the search features display excerpts of related topics. Many commentaries also link to other resources – definitions, tutorials, in-depth articles, and other blog articles.

  • overview – asset classes, portfolio management concepts, terminology
  • planning – needs, current situation, goals, money management style, experience / expertise / confidence
  • strategy – portfolio / framework, objectives, allocation, forecast, indicators
  • reference – trusted advisers, resources, research, newsletters, regular reading, terminology – real / nominal returns, growth, income, volatility, hedging
  • management – buy, sell, monitor, review, how-to, tools
  • evaluation – summarize, assess, refine, balance, adjust
  • living – death, taxes, financial literacy, home, travel, health, medical coverage, quality of life, goals, values,

Each entry has a point to make within one or more of these categories. Capturing the thinking about the importance of the topic and links to associated sources and reference information provides a record of the growing knowledge set.

  • commentary – point, background, so what
  • explore – related information, learn more…
  • apply – how does this apply, fit with overall plan/strategy – scenarios / success/fail criteria
  • evaluate – followup, criteria, indicators

Asset classes

Personal investment is more than stocks although you would never know it from reading the popular press. Within the overall process of money management, it is important to recognize that investments should be considered by asset classes – each with specific management requirements.

Asset class – A specific category of assets or investments, such as stocks, bonds, cash, international securities and real estate. Assets within the same class generally exhibit similar characteristics, behave similarly in the marketplace, and are subject to the same laws and regulations. ..from Investopedia – Asset Classes

  • domestic stocks – S&P, Nasdaq 100
    • energy – XLE
    • precious metals & mining – XAU
    • industrial commodities – RRM index
    • food & agriculture
    • technology
  • domestic fixed income – bond index
  • foreign stocks – TSE, all ords, latin america
  • foreign fixed income – index
  • real property – index
  • cash

Learn more…

  • Asset Classes

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